On Friday May 29, Jay Leno will sign off for the final time as the host of the Tonight Show. Long time NBC’er Conan O’Brien will step in the following Monday as the new host of the iconic late night program. So does this mean the end of a career for Leno? Not even close.

This Fall, Leno will remain with NBC but will move his act into primetime as the host of a talk show weeknights at 10pm ET. The move effectively eliminates an hour of scripted programming from the network’s primetime lineup. Many industry experts consider this a very risky move on the part of NBC. I disagree.

First, it’s a safe bet that Leno’s new show will outperform his Tonight Show due to a vastly larger TV audience available during primetime. The real question is whether or not his ratings will be stronger than the shows that were previously in the 10p prime slot. From the perspective, NBC’s timing could not be better for this move. With the long running ER having just ended and ratings steadily declining for other dramas like Medium and the Law & Order properties, the risk in minimal for moving Leno to primetime.
I’ll be watching Leno at 10PM this fall, will you?